I'm Back With Some Random Thoughts

Since I last blogged the Yankees won the World Series (about the only part of my playoff predictions that came true), the New York Football Giants went from being a Super Bowl favorite to an exposed mediocre NFC team I finally moved into my place in Boston and I turned 24. Here are just a few things I have been thinking about.

1) I am tired of hearing people complain that the Yankees bought the World Series. Since the Steinbrenner clan took over the Yankees have cared about one thing, winning. I don't know how you can fault an owner for taking the revenue from the team and using it to put the best team on the field no matter the cost. Per usual Joe Posnanski says it better than I can,

1. I do not in the slightest blame the Yankees for spending tens of millions more than anyone else. I applaud them for it. They have more money, the system allows it, they are trying very hard to win and that’s the goal. I think the system is badly flawed and leans heavily toward the Yankees. I tried to make that clear. But the Yankees are doing what I would want my team to do in that situation … and what I think I would do in that situation.

2. I do not in the slightest way blame Yankees fans for enjoying the team’s success. Enjoying is what fans are supposed to do. There’s no reason to feel guilty, and no reason to enjoy it any less. But, let’s not pretend that all’s fair in the world, and other owners could do what the Yankees do if they just had a little more gumption. And I should say I heard from many Yankees fans who, while enjoying the success, do concede that, yeah, fair or not, it’s nice to have a team in the biggest city with the greatest tradition, the fattest TV contract and a $1.5 billion baseball palace, a team that makes $100 million more in revenue than any other team and gets to spend that money to win baseball games.

2) I saw the "Hollywood 48-Hour  Miracle Diet" drink in CVS a few days ago. This product claims that it can help you lose 10 pounds in 48 hours. I don't want to lose 10 pounds but my first thought was that I wanted to take 48 hours to use this "product" to prove that it does not work. Cooler heads prevailed (thanks Sarah) and I decided not to waste my time. One thing is for certain losing 10 pounds is not done with a miracle 48 hour cure it takes hard work. Prior to starting to train at Cressey Performance I tried all sorts of gimmicks to get me in better shape, give me ripped abs and put me on the cover of Men's Fitness magazine. The fact of the matter is their is only one recipe to get lean, work hard and eat right.

3) I ran across this photo on Joe Posnanski's blog and I got chills.

picture from baseball think factory

“Pfc. Preston Snook leans back and waits for his pitch during a pick-up baeball game on Camp Fallujah’s sandlot baseball field. Marines from Regimental Combat Team 5 gather weekly to play ball, a way to releive the stress of being deployed and relive their dreams of one day being a Major League Baseball player."

Baseball is truly America's past time and it makes me happy to think that heroes in the armed services get to take their mind of the task at hand for a few hours at a time by playing baseball. I want to truly thank every veteran who has ever served and to every person who is currently serving in the United States Armed Forces. You truly are what makes the United States a great country.

Yankees vs. Phillies World Series Preview

The World Series starts tonight (weather permitting) here are the three keys that I think will determine the winner of the World Series.

1) Which bullpen is better?
The Yankees and the Phillies were the highest and fourth highest scoring teams during the regular season. Really good offensive teams score their runs by wearing out the starter and getting into the bullpen early. That means that guys like Bruney, Robertson, Hughes, Chamberlain and Coke for the Yankees and Happ, Eyre, Meyers, Madson and Durbin are going to pitch really important innings in this series. The Yankees group is largely unproven and the Phillies group has been inconsistent at best.
Brad Lidge's struggles this season and the fact that the Yankees have the G.O.A.T closing games would seem to push this advantage in this category but I think that the series is going to be won or lost in the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th innings.
2) Which teams stars will shine the brightest?
The great thing about this years World Series is that each team is loaded with stars. Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard have carried their teams offensively so far and this World Series may come down to which of these two mashers have a better World Series.
My prediction is that they both will largely be neutralized through intentional walks and that Teixeira and Rollins will be the catalysts of the offense.
3) How will the starters not named Lee and Sabathia pitch?
Do you think that the Indians are kicking themselves right now? Lee and Sabathia have been lights out this post season pretty much allowing the bullpen to rest on the days that they start. The rest of the starters have been far less dominant. In the NLCS the Phillies received huge a performance from Pedro Martinez to help put them on a winning track while Andy Pettitte turned the clock back to 1996 in two strong performances in the ALCS.
If this series goes 6 or 7 games, which I think it will, I think that Lee and Sabathia will negate each other, splitting their two match ups. Each team is going to need strong performances out of their secondary pitchers if they want to win this World Series.

My prediction is the Yankees in 7 in World Series that becomes an instant classic.

NFL in Europe Rant

I know that most of my readers come for my amazing insights into the baseball world (its actually because they are related to me) but I was watching the Patriots game this week that was played in London and overheard Roger Goodell talking about how they want to play two games in Europe next year and have an NFL team in Europe within 10 years.
I'll be the first to admit that I never liked the idea of taking a home game away from a team so that "fans" in London could see a game. It seemed to me more like the billionaire owners were trying to squeeze a few extra dollars out of the league. As much I didn't like the idea, it was only 1 game a year, it didn't disrupt my life too much, but adding a permanent team in London causes more problems than the extra revenue would be worth.
First, what division would the team be in? The NFC East or South or the AFC East would seem to make the most sense but none of those divisions could accommodate an extra team. Second, the travel would be ridiculous. West coast teams already struggle flying across the country to play in the eastern time zone London is 4 more hours ahead of the East coast. Would every team go over to Europe on their bye week? Would the London team come to the United States for two or three weeks at a time? Finally, if you only add one team that means their is a team on a bye every single week. Imagine having opening week and your home team doesn't have a game?
Before I go, check out Mark Sanchez eating a Hot Dog in the middle of the game. I don't know if that is a reflection of how loose Rex Ryan is or how bad the Raiders are.

Let me know what you think ShawnHaviland22@gmail.com or in the comment section.

Winning 2 out of the First 3

If you ask pitching coaches what is the most important pitch in baseball you will get a variety of answers but a large portion will say, "strike one" or "throwing a first pitch strike." While I don't want to completely discount the value of throwing a first pitch strike it is not as imperative as throwing 2 out of the first 3 pitches for strikes. If you look at the batting average by count numbers below you can see why.
Batting Average by Count for All MLB Hitters in 2007
0-0 = .344
1-0 = .341
2-0 = .351
0-1 = .324
1-1 = .327
2-1 = .338
0-2 = .166
1-2 = .178

You will notice that Major League hitters bat .341 on 1-0 counts and .324 on 0-1 counts, a difference but as significant as you would assume. If you fall behind 1-0 or if you get ahead 0-1 you are really only costing yourself 17 hits per 1,000 at bats. 
When I talk about winning 2 out of the first 3 pitches I am really focusing on winning the battle on the 1-1 count. It would be nice to get 0-2 on every guy, but to be honest if you are consistently throwing the 1st two pitches for strikes eventually the hitters are going to catch up to you. On 1-1 counts, a very common count, the difference between the two possible outcomes is enormous. If the count moves to 2-1 hitters will bat .338 but if you are able to fire a strike hitters will bat .178.
As I stated previously, I don't want to argue that throwing a 1st pitch strike isn't important, in fact in substantially improves your chances of throwing 2 out of the 1st 3 pitches for strikes. Rather, I would argue that just because you fall behind 1-0 doesn't mean that the at bat is hugely in the batter's favor. You can be just as effective throwing pitches 2 and 3 for strikes as you can throwing pitches 1 and 3.


Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Drop them in the comment box or email me at ShawnHaviland22@gmail.com

Changing Speeds is the Name of the Game

I have been spending a lot of time the past few weeks following the Pitch F/X data of the Arizona Fall League. One of the cool things that I noticed is that pitchers are very successful when they show a large range of velocities. Two of my favorite examples are Evan Scribner, who is from Torrington, Connecticut and a Unionville Legion rival and Mickey Storey, my teammate this year in Kane County.

Here is Scribner

And Storey

I have seen both Evan and Mickey pitch and they seem to have a knack for throwing the ball by guys, something that happens to people with fastballs in the upper nineties but not the high 80's or low 90's. I think the reason that this happens for both of them is because they have such a wide range between their fastball and curveball. Scribner's average fastball was 91.17 miles per hour while his curveball's average velocity was 72.41 an 18.76 miles per hour difference. Storey's average fastball was 89.58 and his curveball averaged 72.41 a difference of 17.17 mph difference. Timing is everything for a hitter so you can imagine it is going to be hard to get consistent timing when one pitch is 20 mph faster or slower.